The Federal Government’s strong financial incentive programs — Carro Sustentável and Move Brasil — gave fundamental support to the revisions of sales projections that the two entities have just announced. Anfavea, at the beginning of the year, expected growth of only 2.7% for light and heavy vehicles and now it has raised the expectation to 12.1% with a total of 3.014 million units. Fenabrave has made projections with a slightly better degree of accuracy in recent years. The dealership representative forecast 3% higher sales in 2026 and revised earlier this month to an increase of 7.9% and 2.902 million units.
Despite the good news, the sustainability of these good results must be considered. In 2012, 3.8 million units were sold, but in the following year the numbers began to fall and plunged over the periods that followed. The country still has a very low degree of motorization, 4.6 inhabitants per vehicle, a proportion lower than that of Argentina and Mexico, for example, both around 3 to one. Therefore, there is still room to grow. Last year, the circulating Brazilian fleet exceeded 50 million units for the first time.
But the level of production, responsible for sustaining jobs, signals worrying results. In the first half of this year, for example, 63,000 units were imported in addition to the total exported. Anfavea gave up on judicializing the controversial decision of Gecex that released an import quota, without the due tariff, of SKD and CKD units (semi or totally disassembled) for six months, as the process would last much longer. However, it will request future agendas in advance and space for the contradictory.
Accumulated sales of automobiles and light commercial vehicles in 2026 followed this proportion (%): gasoline, 2.9; diesel, 9.4; electric, 6.7%; hybrids, 5.8; plug-in hybrids, 5.6 and flex, 69.7. Electric vehicles continue to grow, but representativeness remains limited. Statistics from Fenabrave, for example, pointed to an increase in electric sales of only 0.8% in June over May, but in the first half of the year, 196.2%, a distortion caused by volumes that are still not very representative.
Avenger will expand production at the Porto Real (RJ) plant
Jeep’s new entry-level model will be positioned in a price range below the Renegade and will complement the production of the plant inaugurated by PSA 25 years ago. Since Peugeot’s 208 and 2008 were transferred, at the end of 2023, to the industrial facilities of El Palomar, in Greater Buenos Aires, the Rio de Janeiro factory has most likely produced below its financial break-even point.
The Avenger compact SUV could be seen at a dedicated event on the assembly lines in Porto Real (20,000 inhabitants) and its launch date is very close, possibly by the end of August (no confirmation from Stellantis). A total of R$ 3 billion will be invested by 2030 to update the industrial complex, which already has 13 suppliers. With the second production shift, 800 employees were hired directly and another 450 in the companies installed both within the factory area and in its surroundings.
The new SUV was launched in Europe in early 2023 with production in Poland and won the title of Car of the Year. It received a stylistic update already incorporated into the Brazilian model. Here there will be four versions, all with a 12-volt semi-hybrid system and should fit into the Sustainable Car program. Jeep did not provide details of the powertrain. However, everything indicates that it will be the 1-liter turbo flex with power reset to 116 hp.
One of the technological resources that the brand has already advanced is the voice assistant with ChatGPT, in partnership with OpenAI. The Avenger will thus expand the possibilities of interaction on board. According to Hugo Domingues, chief executive of the Jeep brand for South America, “we will bring AI (Artificial Intelligence) to the routine of occupants, which will make the experience intuitive, connected and aligned with the new mobility demands”.
Lecar changes plans, but still without generating confidence
The controversial production projects of the Lecar 459 flex hybrids and Campo pickup had very predictable developments, after the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office began to investigate the Programmed Purchase program. The owner of the company, Flávio Assis, told the CNN Brasil Auto website that he served about 90% of customers who requested cancellations. However, according to him, the projects continue “in partnership with Horse Powertrain and WEG”. Partnership seems to suggest that there is some mutual commitment between the parties and rather than simple orders that certainly involve prior guarantees. These two companies did not comment.
Assis, however, continues to dream big. Now he revealed to the site that he agreed to the production of a five-seater electric compact hatch, of Chinese origin, without revealing what the brand would be. He says that “after looking for the 10 largest manufacturers in China, in September he will be in Shanghai and, if everything goes well, we will open sales from there”. Before, he would have negotiated with Dongfeng, without result.
He admitted with laudatory sincerity that he had heard from Dongfeng, which is in the process of starting sales in Brazil next month under the DFM name, an undiplomatic statement: “If not even your people believe in you, why should we? It was hard to hear that, but it happened,” said the businessman. Resisting difficulties can be a positive thing in negotiations…
The new plan foresees imports from China of finished cars and then production from SKD (semi-disassembled, in Portuguese) and CKD (completely disassembled) kits at the projected plant in Sooretama (ES). If everything also goes well, the Espírito Santo unit in 2030 will have an increase in national content for hybrids and electrics.
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