Conflicts in the Middle East prevent the flow of raw materials derived from oil and cause shortages of products in the world
Last week, Japanese automakers Toyota and Nissan began preparing their dealership networks in the United States for a scenario of lubricating oil shortages. This is due to global restrictions on the supply of raw materials and oil refining inputs due to the conflicts that take place in the Middle East, which directly impact logistics and the supply chain.
The world scenario lights up a red alert, as brands point not only to the imminence of strict rationing, but also to an inevitable pass-through of price increases in automotive maintenance services. With this news also comes the question: will this lack of oil affect Brazil?
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The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that is a strategic point on the trade route for oil, its by-products and other important commodities, has been closed since the end of February. As a result, tankers that transport these inputs have been stopped in the region for months waiting for the passage to be released.
Most of the ships that left before the blockade of the strait have already reached their destination and from the next few months the shortage will become more and more real. And the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the impact on the supply of petroleum-derived products, such as lubricating oils.
Last Wednesday (20), three supertankers began the journey to cross the Strait of Hormuz with 6 million barrels, after more than two months stopped. However, ships still represent a small portion of the vessels passing through the site and face high risk due to recent attacks in the region, unpredictable congestion, and threats from drones and mines.
International pressure for supplies is expected to result in a deal between the U.S. and Iran soon. At the time of writing, passage restrictions in Hormuz continue and traffic remains very low.
According to Roberta Teixeira, director of Lubricants at AEA (Brazilian Association of Automotive Engineering), the Brazilian market is alert and closely follows the international scenario. This happens because most of the bases and inputs used in modern lubricants are imported, so it depends on the supply of raw materials that are ‘stuck’ due to the conflict between the United States and Iran.
The director of SAE’s lubricants area states that:
The moment calls for chain monitoring, planning and dialogue between suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and automakers. Even if there is no shortage of product in Brazil, it is possible that the market will feel some indirect effects, especially in logistics costs and deadlines. This impact tends to vary according to the type of product and the dependence on imported inputs.”
Victor Taira, Commercial Director and partner at Karter Lubricants, says that Brazil is already feeling the effects of this global scenario and that the main consequence is linked to the increase in the costs of base oils, additives and imported components. In addition, other challenges are: logistics volatility and the need for greater predictability in the supply chain.
There are cases of companies that had to make operational adjustments and even temporary stoppages in certain lubricating oil lines due to issues related to supply and international costs, according to the Karter executive. The commercial director points out that the impacts are not uniform among distributors, as they may depend more or less on the import of raw materials.
Karter continues with normal operations and companies that sell lubricants, such as Jair Óleos and MercadoCar also have the products in stock, at least for now. Victor Taira reinforces that with the current geopolitical scenario, it is necessary to intensify the relationship with suppliers, strategic partners and distributors to preserve the continuity of supply and minimize the impacts of the energy crisis.
The seriousness of the situation in the country materialized when Nissan confirmed the veracity of a leaked internal document, although the brand stressed that the material was preliminary and had not yet been officially distributed to retailers. The manufacturer said that the automotive sector faces severe global restrictions in the supply of raw materials and refining inputs.
The preventive measures designed are drastic: the draft of Nissan’s bulletin envisaged limiting the supply of the brand’s genuine oil, including variants manufactured in partnership with Mobil. The amount will be reduced to only 55% of the volume purchased by each concessionaire in the previous year.
