Largest seller of diesel to Brazil, Russia suspends exports

More than four years after the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, one of the main pillars of the Russian economy is beginning to feel the effects of the conflict more intensely. The decision by Vladimir Putin’s government to temporarily suspend diesel exports and admit the need to import petroleum products to supplement domestic supplies shows how the war has begun to compromise the energy infrastructure of the country, one of the largest oil producers and exporters in the world.

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Since 2024, Kiev has expanded long-range drone attacks against refineries, storage bases and fuel distribution terminals on Russian territory. According to analyses published by international media outlets, the strategy seeks to hit one of the Kremlin’s main sources of revenue and, at the same time, make it difficult to supply fuel to the Russian armed forces. Although Moscow has strengthened its defense systems, some of these facilities have started to operate at reduced capacity after successive bombardments.

The reflexes are no longer just industrial. The lower refining capacity caused a reduction in the supply of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market, forcing the Russian government to resort to emergency measures. Among them are the suspension of diesel exports, the postponement of scheduled maintenance shutdowns at refineries and the possibility of importing fuels from neighboring countries to serve the most affected regions. The decision represents an unusual reversal for a country whose geopolitical influence has always been tied to its ability to export energy.

Experts heard by the international press assess that the Ukrainian attacks demonstrate an important change in the dynamics of the war. Unable to face Russia on an equal footing with conventional forces, Kiev began to concentrate efforts against strategic assets capable of raising the economic costs of the conflict for Moscow. In addition to reducing export revenues, the bombings force the Russian government to direct resources to repairs, strengthening air defense and maintaining internal supplies.

The export restriction may also have effects outside Russia. Countries that increased the purchase of Russian diesel after the sanctions imposed by the West, including Brazil and Turkey, may face lower availability of the fuel and greater pressure on international prices. Brazil imports about 30% of the diesel it consumes, with approximately 70% coming from Russia.