With high interest rates and global uncertainty, the rental sector reduces fleet renewal, but sees an explosion in demand for electric cars
The Brazilian Association of Car Rental Companies (Abla) projects a scenario of caution and possible retraction for the sector in 2026. After an aggressive expansion cycle that culminated in a record investment of R$ 79.3 billion last year, rental companies are now “stepping on the brakes”, according to the AutoData website. The estimate is that the sector will acquire about 620 thousand new vehicles throughout this year, which would represent a drop of 1.4% compared to the 628.9 thousand units purchased in 2025.
The move reflects a strategic adjustment in the face of an adverse economic situation. Although the total fleet reached the historic mark of 1.7 million vehicles in the last biennium – with a growth of 6.2% and a reduction in the average age of cars to 16.4 months – the cost of capital has become the main bottleneck for the continuity of this pace of renewal.
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According to Paulo Miguel Júnior, vice president of Abla, 2026 presents itself as a “very complicated” year. Maintaining the Selic rate at high levels, around 15%, makes fleet financing more expensive and compresses profit margins. On the external front, the conflict in Iran puts pressure on the price of a barrel of oil, raising operating costs and the final price of automobiles, which are already operating at record levels.
In addition to financial variables, the calendar of the year imposes logistical challenges. The coincidence of long holidays, the election period and the World Cup should drastically change the dynamics of demand for short-term rentals. Such events tend to shift the consumer’s focus and can reduce leisure travel, directly impacting the revenue of rental companies in capitals and tourist centers.
Despite the decline in the total volume, the sector observes an accelerated transformation in the fleet’s energy matrix. The aggressive entry of Chinese brands has forced traditional automakers to review pricing policies, favoring portfolio diversification. In 2025, the number of new electric vehicles in rental companies jumped 160%. The trend is driven by app drivers, who are looking for hybrid and electric models to mitigate the rise in fossil fuels and ensure the financial viability of their operations.
